Marginal Seat

If hypothetically you were to represent a type of parliamentary seat, then being a safe seat may sound like a good gig. You are reliable, usually loyal and predictable, which makes you easy to count on. These sound like great qualities, but ultimately, you are boring. Being a marginal seat is where all the fun is at; you get all the press coverage, all the resources thrown at you and all the attention. You are an unpredictable wildcard, and you have the power to swing an election to a particular side, which makes you that bit much more important. Let's look at what exactly marginal seats are in this article.

Meaning of marginal seat

A marginal seat is a seat in parliament won only by a very small margin of votes, usually 10% or under. Marginal seats are critical to outcomes of general elections in the UK as they are incredibly unpredictable; it can even be the case that incumbent parties that lose their marginal seats lose their position as the leadership party, whereas the parties that gain marginal seats are better placed to form a government. Therefore, marginal seats are viewed as the 'battleground' of elections.

Marginal seats in the UK

In the UK, there are 650 constituencies, and therefore there are 650 seats in Parliament. Across the 650 constituencies, candidates put themselves up for election to gain a seat in parliament for either a political party or as an independent candidate.

In order to form a government, a party needs 326 seats in parliament. Many of the seats in parliament are considered to be safe seats. There is not a consistent number of marginal seats in parliament, as the number of marginal seats differs depending on the outcomes of elections. Marginal seats are also hard to quantify precisely, as there is no clear-cut rule as to what margin percentage makes a seat marginal.

This being said, seats won by a 10% or below margin are usually considered marginal seats and are of vital importance. This is because these seats only require a shift of around 5% of voters in the next election for the seat to fall into the hand of the opposition. In the last general election, there were 67 extremely marginal seats; these refer to seats that were won with a margin of less than 5%.¹

Composition of the House of Common after the 2019 general election, SeaghánÓ, CC0-1.0, Wikimedia Commons

As marginal seats are not easily predictable compared to safe seats, there is a larger focus on the voting outcomes of constituencies with marginal seats. These outcomes are viewed as where election results are made or break for the political parties. Therefore, even though only a minority of parliament seats are marginal, they hold great importance.

Reasons for marginal seats

The electoral system is why marginal seats exist and are so important in the UK. In the UK, the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system is used in general elections. This is a plurality system, meaning individual seats are awarded to candidates who receive the most votes but not necessarily the majority.

As a majority is not required for a Member of Parliament to be elected, FPTP allows for marginal seats, as the winner needs only to receive a few more votes than the other candidates, and therefore incredibly small marginal wins may be produced that could quickly shift in subsequent elections.

Examples of Marginal Seats

As previously mentioned in the last general election (2019), of the 650 parliamentary seats, 67 seats were extremely marginal (a margin of under 5%).²

The number of extremely marginal seats in the 2019 election had, however, reduced from the 2017 election, where 97 of the 650 parliamentary seats were extremely marginal. Let's look at some examples of marginal seats from general elections.

In the 2017 general election, the Labour Party gained a marginal seat in the constituency of Kensington in London. At the time, Kensington was the third most marginal seat in the general election. The Labour Party gained the seat through a margin of just 20 votes. However, as is the very nature of marginal seats, there is always the possibility that such tight wins can easily be lost in the next general election. In the 2019 general election, the Conservative Party gained Kensington from the Labour Party by a margin of 150 votes. This means going forward, both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party will be maximising their efforts to either keep or gain Kensington in the next general election.

In 2019, the constituency of North East Fife in Scotland was the most marginal seat of the entire general election. The Scottish National Party held on to this seat as a result of a mere two votes. That means if just one person forgot it was election day today, another decided to go to dinner after work instead of the polling station, and one person made a last-minute decision in the booth to vote for the Sottish Liberal Democrats instead of the SNP, the results would have been entirely different. This is how fragile the outcome of many of the most marginal seats are in the UK.

Strategies For Securing Marginal Seats

As mentioned, marginal seats can be the deciding factor when it comes to outcomes of general elections, and therefore they are given a lot of attention when campaigning. There are several strategies adopted by candidates and political parties to secure marginal seats.

Talk to as many people as possible - To win over constituents' hearts and minds, candidates for constituencies and their teams often try to speak face to face with as many constituents as possible. This can take the form of knocking on doors, setting up local meetings and attending local events. Speaking to constituents face to face establishes a sense of familiarity between constituents and their MP, meaning that they are more likely to vote for them as there seems to be a more personable relationship between them. Political Parties usually prioritise these marginal seats on their political tours of the nation prior to the general election.

Jeremy Corbyn's campaign tour of marginal constituencies, Sophie Brown, CC-BY-SA.4.0, Wikimedia Commons

Identify the most pressing concerns of the constituents - After talking to the constituents, MP's often identify the most pressing concerns raised by the constituents in marginal seats and present what solutions to these problems could emerge if they were to be elected. This makes many constituents more likely to vote for the MP as they believe not only were their concerns heard, but if elected, they will be solved.