Safe Seat

Safe seats have become a normal part of electoral politics in the UK. This is partially due to the way constituency maps are drawn up. But how do safe seats affect political campaigns in the UK and why do some voters in constituencies that contain safe seats often feel ignored?

Safe Seat: meaning

A safe seat refers to a constituency in which the current MP, current political party, or both are secure. This means that the possibility of the seat being lost during the election is very low even when swing votes are factored into the equation.

Today, a sizable portion of the 650 seats in Westminster Parliament is considered uncompetitive or safe. In fact, nearly 200 seats have been represented by the same party since World War II. Therefore, it is often the remaining competitive or marginal seats that are the deciding factors in election outcomes.

Fig. 1 - Map of the UK's 650 constituencies and corresponding party seats

The importance of Safe Seats

Safe seats are very important in elections as they allow parties and candidates to decide where to focus their campaigns. If seats are considered safe or uncompetitive, parties will often direct their campaign energy and resources on seats in constituencies that are competitive in order to win elections. However, there are times when candidates and parties may attempt to flip their opponent's safe seats, especially if these seats are perceived as vulnerable.

Safe Seat example

Now let's take a look at the major safe seats for the UK's two major parties: the Conservative Party and the Labour Party.

Conservative Safe Seats in the UK

The safest seats for the Conservative party are often located in rural or affluent areas like Buckinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Surrey, and areas in London such as the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea and the Fulham area. These safe seats correspond with the Conservative party's political ideology and history, as the Conservative party has long been associated with the middle-class.

The safest conservative seat in the 2019 election was South Holland and The Deepings in Lincolnshire. For example, in the 2019 election, Conservative candidate John Hayes was elected MP for South Holland and The Deepings after taking 75.9% of the votes. This was the largest majority percentage for the Conservative party in the 2019 general election.¹

Labour Safe Seats in the UK

Labour safe seats are often located in urban and working-class regions in cities like Manchester, Liverpool, and Newcastle. These seats also correspond with Labour's political ideology and history, as the Labour party has traditionally been viewed as the party of the industrial working class.

The safest seat for the Labour Party in the UK is the Liverpool Walton constituency. A Labour party MP from the Liverpool Walton constituency has been elected consistently since 1964. In the 2019 elections, Labour candidate Dan Carden was elected as MP for Liverpool Walton after taking 84.7% of the votes. This was the largest majority percentage achieved not only for the Labour Party but across the country in the 2019 general election.²

Safe Seat in politics

The existence of safe seats in UK politics has been widely criticised. Let's take a look at some of the most common criticisms of safe seats.

Limited voter impact

The existence of safe seats and, in particular, safe seats that have been held for multiple decades, has left some voters feeling as if there is a lack of choice when it comes to elections. Voters who reside in a constituency where a particular party has traditionally always won, feel as though their vote has little or no impact on the election outcome. This negative perception can lead to voter apathy and decreased voter participation.

Decreased engagement

As discussed previously, the existence of safe seats can result in candidates and political parties focusing their campaign efforts elsewhere in other more competitive constituencies. Whilst this may seem logical from the campaigning perspective, it often leaves voters in safe seat constituencies with the perception that MPs and political parties are not engaged in their communities, that their vote is being taken for granted, and that they aren't appreciated. We could argue that safe seats disincentivise MPs to engage in their communities.

MPs with second jobs

MPs in constituencies that are considered safe are perceived by voters to take the security of their position for granted. In fact, in the UK there is a documented link between safe seats and MPs who hold second jobs. This has become a hot-button issue among the UK electorate, as MPs already earn good salaries compared to the majority of the population.

Furthermore, voters in these constituencies expect their elected officials to be accountable and to represent their concerns in parliament. Naturally, having a second job could take away from the time that should be spent fulfilling these responsibilities and engaging in the communities that elected them.

Fig. 2 - Portrait of Conservative MP Geoffrey Cox