Population Pyramid

It's not easy to predict the future. But not impossible! Although population pyramids are useful in geography, they can help governments and other agencies to plan for the needs of their current and future population. First, we'll need the definition of a population pyramid and how to read it properly. It seems very technical but can be easily remembered based on stages or development phases. Let's take a look at some examples of population pyramids and the different stages of a population pyramid.

Population Pyramid definition

A population pyramid is a visual graph that represents gender and age structure within a population. They are used by governments and other sectors to anticipate current population needs and make population predictions for the future. They can also provide information on birth rates, death rates, and life expectancy.

A population pyramid can be made for neighbourhoods, cities, countries, continents, or the whole world! They can be used to compare different places to each other or to analyse one location's population distribution.

Fig. 1 - Population Pyramid for the UK (2020)

A population pyramid is grouped by age and gender and measured by population. Males are placed on the left and females on the right. Then, the age range starts from young (0 years) at the bottom to the oldest (100+ years) at the top. The bars then represent the number of people in each age category. For instance, for the UK population in 2018, the 10-14 year old category had over 3.5 million total people! The bar for males is just over 1.8 million and is right at 1.8 million for females. That means there are a few more thousand males than females in this age category.

Young and Elderly Dependents

Understanding a population pyramid is important to make predictions for the needs of the population. Dependents, which are usually children (young dependents) and the elderly (elderly dependents), rely on the economically active age groups (between 15 and 65 years) to support them. Young and elderly dependents are either too young and in school or too old and retired to survive on their own.

Ideally, there are enough people contributing and assisting dependents. However, if there are too many dependents, some unique challenges may arise. For instance, when there are many young dependents, attention to education and employment are important. An economy that has many young people must ensure there are enough opportunities for them to succeed, otherwise, unemployment and crime could rise from a lack of options. Access to good childcare and healthcare is also important as this group of dependents is vulnerable.

If there are many elderly dependents, other pressing issues arise. These include elderly residential care, healthcare costs, and retirement payments.

Fig. 2 - Young and Elderly Dependents; dependents rely on working individuals to help fund care, services, and education

Types of Population Pyramids

Types of population pyramids are determined by different trends and influences. These trends are usually influenced by birth rates, death rates, and life expectancy, but there are other factors such as fertility rate, healthcare, and migration that can also affect the distribution. Still, it is best to understand population pyramids based on stages of development, namely five. These stages are linked to the stages within the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), a graph that demonstrates the population of a country over time.

Population Pyramid Stages

Population pyramid stages are divided into five development stages. These stages are mainly defined by birth and death rates, which can predict population growth rates. The population structures are defined by the shapes below. We will be referring to this image a lot in the next section. Each stage has relevant adjoining letters to refer you back to the correct population pyramid structure in the image.

Fig. 3 - Population Pyramid Stages

Stage 1 (A)

Stage 1 is characterised by a high birth rate and a high death rate. The population growth rate is minimal, usually close to zero because the birth rate and death rate are so similar. A difference in birth rate and death rate is what causes population change. Therefore, the population size is not very large. Countries or populations in this stage may be highly subjected to disease, famines, or war. They may also be experiencing high infant mortality rates and high child mortality rates. This could be due to low access to health and childcare services.

As you can see in the image, the base of the pyramid is also very wide. Why? Because it is still experiencing high fertility rates despite high infant mortality and child mortality rates. Finally, the elderly population is small, indicating a lower life expectancy. There currently aren't any countries at this stage, as most countries have moved further along development stages with some access to healthcare and other services to help regulate populations.

Stage 2 (B)

Stage 2 is characterised by a high birth rate and a rapidly declining death rate, which you can see by the thickening tip at the top of the pyramid triangle. Contrary to Stage 1, the population growth rate is very high, as the declining death rate means more people are living longer. Therefore, the population size is rapidly increasing. Fertility rates are also high and the pyramid shape has a wide base. Many lower-income countries (LICs) fall within this stage. Therefore, the economies are usually farming-based and much of the population still lives in rural areas. Countries like Afghanistan and the Philippines would fall under this stage. Another term used for this stage is expansive.

Stage 3 (C)

Stage 3 is defined by a rapidly declining birth rate and a slowly declining death rate. The population growth rate is also high with increasing population size. More elderly people live longer, increasing life expectancy. Most newly emerging economies (NEEs) fall within this stage, as agriculture jobs are replaced with industrial and manufacturing jobs. Improvements in healthcare and access to other services have improved. Countries like India and Brazil would fall under this stage.

Stage 4 (D)

In Stage 4, the birth rate and death rate are low and vary. The population growth rate is back to nearly zero, although with a high population size. Healthcare is also very good, and life expectancy is much higher. People are also having fewer children and waiting longer, leading to a lower birth rate. Most higher income countries (HICs) fall within this phase. Countries like the UK and the U.S.A. fall within this category. Another term used for this stage is stationary.

Stage 5 (E)

Stage 5 is a unique category that is similar to Stage 4 except that birth rates are slowly falling while death rates are low. This means population growth rates are negative, and the population size is slowly falling. This is again because healthcare is very good and people are living longer and people are having fewer children and waiting longer. Few countries fall under this stage, although notably Japan and Germany do. Another term used for this stage is constrictive.

Population Pyramid Example

Population Pyramids look different for each country. We mentioned that LICs tend to be in Stage 2, NEEs in Stage 3, and HICs in Stage 4 and 5. In the next sections, we'll provide population pyramid examples in different countries and at different stages.

Population Pyramid of a Developing Country

An example of a population pyramid of a developing country is Panama in 2020. It is categorised by a thickening triangle base as it experiences a declining birth and death rate. Life expectancy has also risen with time with a growing elderly population. This is because healthcare services are improving and becoming more accessible. This places it within Stage 3. Panama's economy is based on diverse services, providing many economic opportunities for its large and economically active population.

Fig. 5 - Population Pyramid for Panama (2020)

Population Pyramid of a Developed Country

An example of a population pyramid of a developed country is Estonia in 2020. The birth and death rate is very low, with a very low population growth rate and steady population size. This is again because healthcare services are very good and people are living longer. People are also having fewer children and waiting longer to have them. This places it within Stage 4. However, the growing elderly population size indicates that it could be heading into Stage 5. This means Estonia's costs for elderly dependents could rise. As of now, Estonia's economy has a strong financial centre and is considered a HIC.

Fig. 6 - Population Pyramid for Estonia (2020)