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The purpose of learning case studies on natural disasters is to allow you to see real-life examples and statistics of the theories you’ve learned about, such as the Pressure and Release Model (PAR) and the influence of governance on impacts of hazards.
You can view the separate case studies in detail:
A brief statistical comparison of the three natural disasters can be seen below:
Japan | Nepal | Indonesia | |
Hazard Type | Earthquake and Tsunami | Earthquake | Volcanic Eruption |
Hazard Magnitude | 9 Mw | 7.8 Mw | 4 VEI |
Social Impact Summary | 15,899 lives lost, 2,527 missing (now presumed dead), 6,157 injuries and 450,000 losing their homes. | 9,000 lives lost, 22,000 people injured. Over 600,000 houses were destroyed. | 347 lives were lost, 300,000 people evacuated. |
Economic Loss (£) | 160 billion | 5 billion | 450 million |
Existing Mitigation | Sea walls, warning systems in the country, urban planning, and buildings built based on hazard maps. | Anonymous data from mobile phone networks for information of the population flow | Seismological Monitoring, evacuation drills, high reliance on indigenous warning signs |
2019 Human Development Index (HDI) | 0.919 | 0.602 | 0.718 |
As you can see in the table, we have identified the Human Development Index (HDI) for each country affected by the mentioned natural disasters. The Human Development Index calculates the development of the country by considering their life expectancy, expected years of schooling for children (at the school entry ages), the average number of years adults have attended school, and the Gross National Income per capita. Therefore the higher the HDI, the better quality of life, health and access to education.
If the HDI of a country is lower, vulnerability is higher. This is because of reduced access to basic necessities and well-built housing, lower education levels, and a lack of knowledge about hazards and available governmental support. It is also more probable that most livelihoods will rely on sectors that are often influenced by natural disasters, such as the agricultural industry.
Nepal and Indonesia have significantly lower HDI compared to Japan, which is also reflected in the level of hazard preparation for the different countries.
The total economic loss caused by the disaster in Japan may seem a lot more than the others. But let’s look at this in terms of GDP.
The economic losses as a percentage of the GDP are approximated to the following:
Japan | Nepal | Indonesia | |
Economic Loss (£) | 160 billion | 5 billion | 450 million |
GDP (£) | 3.6 trillion | 22 billion | 810 million |
Economic Loss as Percentage of GDP (%) | 0.044 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
Please keep in mind that these statistics are estimates as the GDP has been converted into pounds and is based on 2019 data, but you can now see the different meanings of economic losses.
In Impacts of Hazards, you saw that governance influences vulnerability. Below you will see how each government played a part in influencing the impact of the disasters, including their strengths and weaknesses before and after the disasters.
Since the earthquake, changes have been made in the government approach to disaster risk. One new implementation is a bottom-up approach where the people most affected influence policy to increase engagement and inform decisions. An example is that local governments in the Gohrka district took the initiative to develop multi-hazard disaster risk reduction plans. Local leaders have been focusing on reducing disaster risks.
A significant difficulty for Nepal is instability due to conflict between Maoist rebels and the government. Additionally, due to no agreements on the federal structure or elected local governments in the past decades, a progression in development is difficult. The country is also dealing with socio-economic inequality and marginalisation of ethnic groups, caused by Hindu elites uniting Nepalese tribal homelands in one political and administrative state. After the earthquakes, sectors that only benefit a small group of people (such as Kathmandu Valley) have been the focus of rebuilding. This further increases the countries inequality.
Japan is widely known to be one of the most prepared countries against tsunamis and earthquakes as they experience earthquakes with magnitudes 6.5 and above almost every year. The government has invested significantly in mitigation strategies such as breakwaters, warning systems, automatically stopping trains, assembly lines, and evacuation drills.
Despite having a system that provides information about wind and radiation, the government did not pass this on to citizens after the nuclear incident following the 2011 tsunami. This reduced people’s trust in the government to under 20% in 2012 (1). 100,000 were still living in temporary homes by 2014 whilst £22 million of funding for infrastructure recovery was still unspent. The loss of trust can influence the vulnerability of future disasters.
Indonesia is currently an evolving economy which means that the poverty rate of the country has decreased. The country’s poverty rate decreased from 24% in 1998 to 11.3% in 2014. As you’ve previously learnt, as people’s income increases, so do their resilience. This is promising; however, the fast rate of change can mean that some people are still at risk of falling back into poverty due to a disaster.
National leaders and governments have promoted nationalism in the past. This created a country with united cultural values, making it difficult to focus on development instead of regional priorities. Many communities rely on their traditional warning signs of volcanic eruptions such as ash plumes, movement of monkeys and other animals down the volcano, small earthquakes and lightning storms from the ash. Additionally, if their traditional or community leaders are opposed to evacuation, they are likely to be reluctant. This is because they value their spiritual connection to the volcano, and therefore when the traditional signs do not occur, they are not likely to listen to the advice to evacuate based on scientific monitoring.
Generally, the areas most affected by disasters are low and middle-income countries. Between 2008 and 2016, developing countries lost approximately £78 billion in their agricultural sectors due to damage to crops and livestock. Asia was the most affected economically by natural disasters as they lost approximately £35 billion. Africa had an economic loss of £22 billion, Latin America and the Caribbean had a loss of £21 billion.
The good news is that there has been a decline in mortality from natural disasters in recent years significantly due to building codes, education and warning systems. For instance, an effective tsunami warning system was implemented after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. This was able to provide warning signals during the Banda Aceh earthquake which saved many lives.
Sources
1: OECD data https://data.oecd.org/gga/trust-in-government.htm
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