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The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 is something many believed would not happen in the West in the 21st century. Yet, here we are. Though it has brought a globally collective response against the acts of Russia, war and conflict are present across much of the developing world on an almost daily basis.
In the same week that Ukraine was bombed by Russia, Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen 37 times, the US carried an airstrike on Al Shabab militants in Somalia and Israel bombed Syria.
We will be looking at:
The meanings of war and conflict
The different types of war and conflict, with examples
The causes of war and conflict
The impacts of war and conflict on economic development
The meanings of war and conflict
The above example is also a good introduction to explaining the difference between the meanings of war and conflict. In other words, why are the bombings in Yemen, Somalia and Syria not also considered acts of war? Well, a conflict is a disagreement between two parties where at least one considers the other a threat, which can then lead to acts of violence and fighting - such as these bombings. On the other hand:
War is where conflict is widespread, intentional, and declared.
A civil war is a war between organised groups within the same country.
It is important to understand the difference between war and conflict before we consider the types of war and conflict.
Types of war and conflict
Most modern wars and conflicts, as Mary Kaldor (1999) points out, are civil wars that occur overwhelmingly in some of the most underdeveloped and poorest nations. Kaldor calls these 'new wars'. According to Kaldor, these 'new wars' result from globalisation.
Types of war and conflict are no longer between nations and on ideological grounds (i.e. democracy vs. communism) but occur between varying combinations of state and non-state actors, often in the name of identity politics (i.e. ethnic, religious, tribal). Instead of an attempt to achieve physical control of a population, new wars are defined by political control through fear and terror.
Kaldor uses the Bosnian War 1992-1995 as an example. It was based on ethnic and religious differences within the Bosnian population and resulted in over 100,000 people dying.
To illustrate the differences between old and new wars, let's see the characteristics of each, side by side.
Old Wars | New Wars |
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Table 1 - Differences between 'Old' and 'New' Wars.
When thinking of shadow economies, take the recent civil war in Syria that started in 2011. The Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, was supported by Russian weapons and bombs, whilst the Syrian people's army was supported by Western aid and arms.
Large public outcry and heavy reporting in the 'West' led to many Western leaders proclaiming their support for the Syrian people and supplying them with arms to fight the Assad regime.
Examples of war and conflict
Let's look at some examples of fairly recent wars and conflicts below:
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 can be considered a hybrid of Kaldor's old vs. new wars.
The 1992-1995 Bosnian war and the 2011 Syrian civil war are examples of 'new wars'.
Examples of ongoing conflict include: Saudi Arabia and Yemen; conflict between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir region; and the Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar.
What are the causes of conflict in developing countries?
Though many writers agree with the nature of modern war and conflict, i.e. typically defined by 'new (civil) wars', the causes of war and conflict vary depending on the theoretical positions that one takes.
In short, there are roughly 3 competing arguments. These are:
Neo-Malthusian,
Modernisation, and
Dependency theory-based perspectives.
Let's have a look at each in turn.
The Neo-Malthusian argument
Malthusian theory states that "food production will not be able to keep up with growth in the human population, resulting in disease, famine, war, and calamity" 1 (Kagan, 2021: online)
Neo-Malthusian theory differs on two accounts.
Population size should be controlled through birth control methods rather than general behavioural change. I.e. through contraception and sterilisation vs. Malthus' beliefs that there should be delayed marriage and abstinence.
Neo-Malthusianism more strongly places the burden of overpopulation onto the working classes - they are the ones who are responsible for the increasing birth rates and supposedly growing societal ills. Therefore, Neo-Malthusian's believe birth control methods should be focused here.
Civil wars in developing countries are a manifestation of a struggle to survive. This struggle to survive for Neo-Malthusians (Robert Kaplan, 1994) is a result of:
- Uncontrolled population growth and overpopulation
- Environmental scarcity
- Resource depletion
Or, as Kaplan (1994: online) himself wrote:
…how scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet." 2
You might be wondering what the Neo-Malthusian argument is and where it comes from. Is it new? You're right, it is. Don't worry, the Malthusian argument and its new iteration will be explained more in the 'Demographic Change' article.
The Modernisation argument
Modernisation theorists like Mohammed Ayoob (1995) see war and conflict in developing countries as a part of the development process. Civil wars are due to the 'traditional' beliefs and hierarchy systems present within developing countries.
Ethnic rivalries within nations, low standards of living and weak forms of governance mean there is little to lose and little to prevent if groups within that nation go to war with one another.
Modernisation theorists believe that civil wars will become less common the more these countries economically develop and adopt 'modern', i.e. Western, practices and values. For example, when countries adopt free trade and democratic practices.
From historical standards, the world has never been a more peaceful place. At the same time, since 1989, there have been more democratic than autocratic governments globally.
In 2017, 89,000 people were killed in active armed conflicts - a sharp decrease from the 5.51 million killed in WW2 in 1945 alone.
Since 1989, the more democratic the world has become, the more deaths from conflict have reduced: from 300,000 deaths in 1989 to 89,000 in 2017. 3
Is this clear evidence that modernisation theory is right?
The dependency argument
Dependency theory sees the causes of conflict in developing countries as arising from external factors. Specifically, it analyses civil wars in a global context.
Mark Duffield (2001) argues that growing inequalities fuelled by exploitative relationships within globalisation have led to more poverty. In turn, this leads to increased frustration and desperation that can take the form of civil war and conflict.
Examples of external factors include:
Unfair terms of trade - This leads to millions of local farmers in developing countries being unable to match global prices, pushing them further into poverty.
The direction and misuse of aid - This is particularly felt when governments siphon off money for themselves or when aid is tied to particular projects affecting only a minority.
Sierra Leone entered into a decade of civil war between 1991 and 2002 due to government corruption and exploitative working conditions, so that diamonds could be traded and sold at low prices.
Another external factor is the interference by other (mainly developed) countries, none more than the US. How so?
Well, by (1) supplying arms and (2) engineering military coups.
Noam Chomsky (2004) went so far as to say that the United States is the world's largest terrorist, having been involved in over 50 military conflicts with other countries since World War II. Alongside this, David Harvey (2005) argues that the war in Iraq was all about oil.
Evaluation of different arguments
After a read of each, you can hopefully see that each argument about the causes of war and conflict has both strengths and limitations.
Strengths
The Neo-Malthusian position brings attention to the fragility of peace for many in the developing world.
The modernisation argument does seem to be correct in saying that the more economically developed a country becomes, the less war and conflict is likely to occur.
The dependency argument successfully highlights how economic development, and underdevelopment, are tied up in external and global policies and actions that are often beyond their control.
In many ways, the dependency argument expands upon the analysis laid out by the modernisation argument. However, it would disagree as to the source of conflict, i.e. it is not 'traditional' belief and hierarchy systems that are at fault.
Limitations
Each position is framed by the grander theoretical narrative they exist within. In other words, the more general positions set out by Malthusian, modernisation and dependency theory each limit what they can point to as the source of war and conflict. They over-emphasise the validity of their position by only drawing a single conclusion for the source of all conflict.
The conflict trap
Paul Collier's (2003) concept of the 'conflict trap' is perhaps the best bridge between these theories.
The conflict trap is an idea that highlights the reciprocal relationship between poverty and conflict. Poverty breeds conflict; prolonged conflict breeds further poverty.
In other words, the more impoverished a country is, the higher the likelihood of conflict. Once conflict has been established, economic development declines, which in turn increases the chance of conflict even further.
Importantly, Collier highlights that the reasons for poverty (and therefore conflict) are multifaceted - there are both internal and external factors. For Collier, it is also important that developed countries help intervene in these conflicts early.
As a result, Collier is effectively combining the arguments from all three of the positions above!
The impact of conflict on economic development
The effects of war hold long-term negative consequences, particularly for developing countries. Some of these are:
War is expensive. Funds that would otherwise go on improving economic and social indicators of development are now lost. For example, it takes away the amount of money spent on building schools or hospitals.
War destroys infrastructure (e.g. buildings, roads, power supplies) and stops international trade. With many developing countries' economies dependent on international trade for their economic growth, it can worsen levels of poverty and increase levels of debt.
War harms educational attainment and disrupts healthcare services. Schools may be shut down, children may not receive an education, and already limited resources in healthcare settings will now have to be used on battle-related injuries. Not only this, but war can lead to longer-term health issues. The atrocities of war and conflict can lead to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), general mental and emotional distress, and increased rates of suicide.
War leads to mass displacement and refugees. There are currently 80 million refugees. Refugee camps can have poor sanitation and food shortages and often are not able to provide schooling for young children.
War leads to long-term economic problems. The Global Peace Index notes that in 2019 alone, the impact of conflict on economic development cost $40 trillion to the world's economy.
Collier's conflict trap (2003) highlights how once a country has engaged in civil war and conflict, the likelihood of it happening again increases greatly.
War and Conflict - Key Takeaways
- A conflict is a disagreement between two parties where at least one considers the other a threat, which can then lead to acts of violence and fighting. On the other hand, war is where conflict is widespread, intentional, and declared.
- There were 'old' wars, which were based primarily on ideological grounds between nations, and 'new' wars, which arise between both state and non-state actors and are based on identity politics.
- The causes of conflict in developing countries vary depending on the theoretical position one takes - Neo-Malthusian, modernisation theory, or dependency theory.
- Paul Collier's concept of the 'conflict trap' is perhaps the best bridge between these theories. It highlights the reciprocal relationship between poverty and conflict.
- War and conflict affect developing countries in massively devastating ways.
References
- Kagan, J. (2021). Thomas Malthus. Investopedia. investopedia.com
- Kaplan, R. D. (1994). The Coming Anarchy. The Atlantic. theatlantic.com
- Our World in Data. (n.d.). Global conflict deaths: a comparison of different data sources, number of deaths, 1935 to 2017. ourworldindata.org
- Fig. 1 - Graph of Global deaths since 1935 (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-conflict-deaths-various-sources?time=1935..latest) by Joe Hasell (https://ourworldindata.org/team#joe-hasell) licensed by CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/#)
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Frequently Asked Questions about War and Conflict
What is the difference between war and conflict?
A conflict is a disagreement between two parties where at least one considers the other a threat which can then lead to acts of violence and fighting. On the other hand, war is where conflict is widespread, intentional, and declared.
What are the causes of war and conflicts?
The causes of conflict in developing countries vary depending on the theoretical position one takes.
For example, a Neo-Malthusian would argue that conflict is a manifestation from a general struggle to survive. On the other hand, modernisation theorists see the causes of conflict as linked to the 'traditional' beliefs and hierarchy systems present within developing countries. Thirdly, dependency theorists see the causes of conflict in developing countries arising from external factors and a global system of exploitation that have kept many in extreme poverty. This in turn leads to increased frustration and desperation that takes the form of conflict and war.
How does war affect developing countries?
- War is expensive, taking away funds that would otherwise go on improving aspects of Development. In 2019, the cost of global violence was $40 trillion.
- War destroys infrastructure and stops international trade.
- War harms educational attainment, disrupts healthcare services, and massively harms people's physical and mental health.
- War leads to mass displacement. There are currently 80 million refugees.
Is war an example of conflict?
War is an example of conflict. However, the difference is that war is where conflict is widespread, intentional and declared. For example, the actions in Ukraine by Russia would be classified as a war rather than a conflict.
When does a conflict become a war?
A conflict becomes a war when conflict is widespread, intentional and declared.
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