Have you ever come across the word 'census'? Perhaps someone came knocking on your door asking about your age, occupation or number of members in your household? If you're in the UK, maybe you remember your parents filling in a lengthy form?
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Jetzt kostenlos anmeldenHave you ever come across the word 'census'? Perhaps someone came knocking on your door asking about your age, occupation or number of members in your household? If you're in the UK, maybe you remember your parents filling in a lengthy form?
Who are these people, and why do they need your personal information? Who uses this information?
We will look at the following:
Let's consider some key terms first.
Demography is the statistical study of the human population. According to the Cambridge Dictionary of Sociology:
Demography is concerned with how large (or small) populations are...how the populations are composed according to age, sex, race, marital status, and other characteristics."
It includes the collection of data that is used to measure things such as rates of birth, death, and migration using various concepts and techniques. The data collected for such studies is called demographic data.
Demography can be said to typically focus on five aspects (Swanson and Stephan, 2004).
When data is collected for a long period of time, patterns are formed with such statistics - this is essentially what a demographic trend is.
A demographic trend can be defined as a long-range demographic change observed historically in populations around the world.
Now that we understand what demographic trends are, let us look at some interesting examples of such trends so that we can identify them better:
Multiple bodies can be involved in collecting demographic data, all for different purposes. Let us look at some of them below.
The results of such studies and trends identified are used for multiple purposes, depending on who is using them. Let us look at some of the ways various parties use demographic data.
Businesses often collect and use demographic data. Some of the purposes are listed below:
Probably one of the most important contributions of demography for the government is to provide projections of the future population. Such a projection is essentially a forecast of the future population and its constituent groups based on certain assumptions.
Governments also use socioeconomic information to understand the age, racial makeup, and income distribution (among several other variables) in neighbourhoods, cities, states, and nations to make better public policy decisions.
A good example of this is the Griffiths Report in 1983. The Secretary of State for Social Services established an independent management inquiry into the National Health Service (NHS). The purpose of this inquiry was to analyse available data to examine how resources were used and controlled inside the health service, and to identify what further management issues needed to be pursued.
The report made several recommendations which eventually led to the introduction of general management in the NHS.
Economists predominantly study the production and distribution of resources, goods, and services by collecting and analysing data, researching trends, and evaluating economic issues. Thus, the collection of data relating to the human population is extremely crucial for them.
They recognise that one of the major drivers of economic growth is population growth. The more people that exist, the more workers who are available for production in the labour force; thus, there are also more people to consume goods and services.
The depth and range of analysis by researchers, in turn, are also used by governments and organisations for policy initiatives. Blaikie (1987) proposed that, in addition to macro-level study, greater micro-level study at the sub-national, community, and household levels is needed to explore the linkages between population change and concepts such as environmental change.
For this reason, demographic data has to be collected regularly and in different areas to broaden research.
Sociologists have identified multiple reasons for such demographic trends - social, economic, cultural, legal, political, as well as technological. Of course, not each sociologist discusses the reasons behind every single trend, and neither are they all streamlined.
However, this is supposed to give you an idea of how sociologists approach this area. Let us now look at what some of the justifications for demographic trends are.
Becker (1960) theorised that the decline in fertility was a by-product of the rise in income and the associated rise in the opportunity cost of raising children. This means that people had more money to spend and realised that it would be more beneficial for them to spend that money on other activities than raising children.
The opportunity cost of a particular activity option is the loss of value or benefit that would be incurred by engaging in that activity, relative to engaging in an alternative activity offering a higher return in value or benefit.
Thomas McKeown (1988) theorised that the overall population growth between the late 1700s and the present was not due to advancements in the field of medicine or public health. Rather, it was a result of social and economic conditions such as increased income, diet improvements, and positive lifestyle changes. All of this led to better resistance to infections, which in turn led to reduced death rates.
This theory, however, met wide criticism and challenges. For example, the theory does not answer the question of why women, who receive less food and hence less nutrition, generally live longer than males.
Donald Hirsch (2005) held that the ageing of the population is a result of multiple factors such as increasing life expectancy, declining infant mortality, and declining fertility.
Instead of brooding over many numbers and statistics, it is always easier to understand how a nation is behaving based on identifying demographic trends. Let us look at some major demographic trends in the UK by population.
The following trends have been identified by The King's Fund analysis of ONS' 2010-based National Population Projections.
The King's Fund is an independent think tank, which is involved with work relating to the health system in England.
Between 2012-2032, the population in England is predicted to grow by 8 million to just over 61 million. Of these, 4.5 million will be from natural growth (births – deaths), and 3.5 million from net migration. Let's look at some more specific demographic and social trends in the UK.
By 2032, 11.3 million people are expected to be living on their own, more than 40 percent of all households. The number of people over 85 living on their own is expected to grow from 573,000 to 1.4 million.
Over time birth rates have fluctuated quite significantly. Current predictions are that the annual number of births will level off to around 680,000–730,000 births per year.
In 1901, baby boys were expected to live for 45 years and girls for 49 years. In 2012, boys could expect to live for just over 79 years, and girls for 83 years. By 2032, this is expected to increase to 83 years and 87 years respectively.
Healthy life expectancy is growing at a similar rate, suggesting that the extra years of life will not necessarily be years of ill health.
The combination of extending life expectancy and the ageing of those born in the baby boom (just after the Second World War) means that the population aged over 65 is growing at a much faster rate than those under 65. Over the next 20 years, the population aged 65-84 will rise by 39 percent, and those over 85 by 106 percent.
The number of deaths each year is expected to grow by 13 percent from 462,000 to 520,000 by 2032.
Men and women in the highest socio-economic class can, on average, expect to live just over seven years longer than those in the lowest socio-economic class, and more of those years will be disability-free.
How do demographic trends vary by ethnicity?
By 2031, ethnic populations will make up 15 per cent of the population in England and 37 per cent of the population in London. The United Kingdom's population is predominantly white and white British (81.88 percent, as of the 2011 Census).
Immigration to the UK rose from around 500,000 to 600,000 a year between 2001 and 2005, but has remained steady since. Over the past 10 years, emigration has fluctuated between 300,000 and 400,000 a year. The net migration has therefore been about 200,000 people a year for the past 10 years.
In addition, roughly five per cent of the population of England and Wales move to local authority every year. The impact is not evenly felt, as some cities and regions have very high population change – as much as 20 per cent every year in some London boroughs.
The major impact of demographic trends is on governments and major businesses, whose role it is to keep up with the trends and change policies according to the requirements of the society. Let us look at the role of governments and businesses in tackling some of the trends outlined above.
Let's explore some of the demographic and social trends that have been changing in the UK.
With an ageing population, governments and businesses have a key role to play in encouraging older workers to remain in the workforce. This can include creating flexibility around retirement, creating financial incentives, reforming pension rules, ensuring that age discrimination is strongly outlawed, and re-training the older workforce to get them up to date with new skills relevant today (Hirsch, 2005).
According to Peter Townsend (1981), the negative attitude toward the elderly in our society as a dependent population is a major hindrance to society. This needs to be tackled by governments and organisations alike to educate society on the benefits of an older population with more experience.
With the general population increasing, policymakers may need to improve access to affordable and quality childcare, education, and health care facilities, as well as endeavour to create more job opportunities. This will also require the contribution of multinational organisations, which possess the ability to create jobs on a large scale due to their research and entrepreneurship prowess.
The number of people has a direct impact on demand for infrastructure services, as people use it for various purposes. A higher number of people means more or bigger households, both of which will drive up demand for infrastructure services. Governments and energy organisations thus need to take this into account while planning developments.
With migration becoming more commonplace, governments need to make their economies more migrant-friendly. This requires another look at immigration laws, tax benefits, the creation of job opportunities, and the diversification of infrastructure. Businesses are likely to make their workplaces more international to attract better talent from multiple jurisdictions.
Demographic data and subsequent trends are crucial and helpful indicators of the direction in which policies should be introduced and further modified.
Some of the major demographic changes in the UK are the population is growing, the population is ageing, health inequalities persist, the number of deaths is expected to grow, life expectancy and health expectancy are growing, population is becoming more diverse, and migration has been uneven.
The UK population is ageing. The population aged over 65 is growing at a much faster rate than those under 65. Over the next 20 years the population aged 65-84 will rise by 39 per cent, and those over 85 by 106 per cent.
The United Kingdom's population is predominantly white, white British (81.88 percent as of the 2011 Census).
The UK population is becoming more diverse. By 2031, ethnic populations will make up 15 percent of the population in England and 37 percent of the population in London.
Why does the death rate differ across different parts of the population?
The death rate is dependent on lots of different factors: age, gender, race, education levels, living standards, affluence, social discrimination levels. All of these things change peoples life expectancy.
What is meant by 'natural change'?
Natural change is the difference between the numbers of births and deaths, which is a key indicator of population size and growth. If there are more births than deaths, a population will experience a natural increase.
What do Anthony Giddens and Ulrich Beck claim is the most important factor explaining the decline in birth rate?
Change in gender roles.
What is the dependency ratio?
The dependency ratio is the relationship between the economically productive part of the population and non-workers or dependents, such as children or the elderly.
Define 'birth rate'.
According to Merriam-Webster, the term birth rate is defined as "the ratio between births and individuals in a specified population and time".
What is the 'total fertility rate' (TFR)?
The 'total fertility rate' is a demographic measure that looks at the average number of children that women have in their childbearing years.
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